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| Monetary policy review today: |
| Monetary policy review today: Will the RBI cut rates?
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| INDIA
, 18-June-2012
0:45:3 AM |
| RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao is expected to go slow on his over two-year-old anti-inflationary posture and unveil a softer interest rate regime on Monday as more dark clouds gather over the economy, although inflation still remains above the Reserve Bank's comfort zone.
Following the shocking latest GDP numbers, which showed that economic expansion had hit a nine-year low at 6.5 per cent in Financial Year 2012, there have been incessant calls from the government as well as economists to give growth concerns a priority, rather than the inflation.
Last Saturday, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee had expressed confidence that Reserve Bank will adjust the monetary policy. "I am confident the RBI will adjust the monetary policy, as we are adjusting fiscal policy (to prop up the economy)," Mr Mukherjee had said at an industry event in Mumbai on Sunday.
The RBI Governor will unveil the mid-quarter review of monetary policy on Monday, wherein, it is expected, he will bring down the key short-term lending rate or repo rate by at least 0.25 percentage point to 7.75 per cent, and may even lower the cash reserves ratio by up to 1 percentage point.
So far this year the Governor has reduced Cash Reserve Ration (CRR) by a hefty 125 bps and the repo rate by a more than expected 50 bps as the core inflation began to ease and growth began to dodder.
This was a radical departure from his 20-month rate-hike cycle beginning March 2010 wherein he had ratcheted up lending rates by a whopping 350 bps.
But headline inflation is not giving the Governor any comfort at present, as it rose to 7.55 per cent in May. Yet, the IIP numbers released last week strengthened the call for rate cuts as the April factory output data was barely in the green zone at a paltry 0.1 per cent.
The steep contraction in exports, which in May fell by over 3 per cent and the steep plunge of the rupee also make a case for easing of rates.
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